ThruxBets

I think I‘ve mentioned on Twitter/X before that you can quite happily swerve Aiden O’Brien’s runners in the UK in April. His record just isn’t great, infact, April is his worst month for winners.

He’s had just 6 winners from 84 runners, a strike rate of 7% – way below what he operates at during the rest of the year. If you’d simply laid all his UK runners in April over the seasons, you’d actually be sitting on a tidy +40 LSP.

BUT, this all changes – historically, at least – in May when, for whatever reason, Ballydoyle fly into action.

If April is a write off, May is the complete opposite. It’s comfortably the yard’’s best month of the UK season: 93 winners from 370 runners, a hefty 25% strike rate, and a +58 LSP just backing them blind.

However – and this is where it gets really interesting – the standout driver behind those numbers appears to be the Chester May Festival.

The table below show’s the difference between races at May other than at Chester, compared to just the three days at the festival … an absolutely staggering difference.

The win strike rate jumps from 18% to 43%, the place strike rate nearly doubles, and LSP swings from a small loss to a huge +64 profit from just 109 bets – that’s a 59% ROI.

This is a meeting the O’Brien team clearly target as the results over the years show:

Dig a little deeper, though, and it gets even more eye-catching.

When Ryan Moore rides for the yard at this meeting, the numbers are borderline absurd: a 63% strike rate, +47 LSP, and an ROI of 83%. Their performance at no other festival comes close to these sort of figures.

At the time of writing, the combination have won with their last six consecutive runners at the meeting and since 2022, they’ve won 15 of the 19 races they’ve contested. Mad!

If you wanted to just focus on one day, their form for Thursday of the meeting is: 11111311711211611111111 for 19/23 and 83% SR!

Unsurpisingly, considering the names involved, plenty of these go off short enough, and the angle probably won’t come as a surprise to many, but as the numbers show, they’re still worth backing, which I will be doing this week, hopefully for a profit.