ThruxBets

I’m still waiting for my first winner of the flast season so I’m hoping one of these below can oblige today …

Three selections from up at Thirsk.

3.53 Thirsk I’m taking a chance on TRAVIS in this one. Looking at the shape of the race I think the Geoff Harker trained 5yo could well go forward from his wide draw and get a very easy early lead. He’s not just a pace angle though and ticks many boxes, too; ground conditions ideal, on a workable mark, 223 at the trip and has won at the track.

TRAVIS // 0.5pt E/W 7/1 4 places (Coral) BOG

5.35 Thirsk Not the greatest of races so I’m taking a swing at an outsider. MISS WILLOWS makes her seasonal reapperance today and has gone really well on her return in the past. As her Spotlight in the RP points out, she’s never won from a mark this high but this might just be the time to catch her, especially as she’s another front runner without many like minded rivals to take her on.

MISS WILLOWS // 0.25pt E/W @ 28/1 5 places (Bet365) BOG

6.10 Thirsk Yorkshire Glory is looking for his 7th win on the bounce here, but back on turf I’m swerving him. I backed Juan Les Pins on his seasonal reappearance at Donny 2 weeks ago and he ran really well for second that day and gets another 3lbs off via an apprentice today. However, despite him being the most likliest winner for me, at 4/1 he looks mighty short and can’t back him at that price. At double those odds, I’m going to take a chance with LORD ABAMA whose all 3 turf wins have come over C&D, the last two of which were off the same or lower marks. Drying ground will only help and has won off a similar break before.

LORD ABAMA // 0.5pt E/W @ 8/1 5 places (Bet365) BOG

The blog is still waiting for it’s first winner, with Mission Command only managing third at Pontefract to make it 5 places out of 7 each way selections.

And its up the A1 from Pontefract to Catterick for some action on Wednesday.

3.23 Catterick Taking a chance here with Mick Appleby’s WAY TO DUBAI. The 7yo doesn’t have the most attractive of profiles, with just 1 win from 38 starts, but he should strip fitter than plenty of his competitors today who look like they will need the run. Today also represents his first foray into class 5 company on the flat, some 21lbs lower than his highest OR. The return to 7f should be better for him and can hopefully be involved at the business end.

WAY TO DUBAI // 0.5pt E/W @ 12/1 4 places (Bet365)

5.05 Catterick With 6/1 available at Bet365, I’m siding each way with Adrian Keatley’s FRANCISCOS PIECE in the penultimate race of the day. This is a significant drop in class for the 4yo who finished 2nd in the Redcar 2yo trophy in 2024 and was then pitched into very decent handicaps without much (any!) success. I’m hoping these shallower waters against inferior opposition will let us see him at his new level and can hopefully improve both his trainer and jockey’s excellent record at the track.

FRANCISCOS PIECE // 0.5pt E/W @ 6/1 (Bet365)

Don’t have too much time for write-ups this morning, but I’ve taken a look at the action from good old Ponte Carlo and found a single selection...

3.27 Pontefract

Despite the Jennie Candlish not saddling a winner at the course in 33 attempts, I’m siding with her MISSION CONTROL here. The 4yo gelding has been running well enough on the AW over winter without ever really landing a blow – just one placed effort from 5 attempts. Is now back on the turf and in a class 5 handicap for the very first time (all runs been in class 4s in better races) so hoping he can go well and maybe make it 34th time lucky for the yard.

MISSION COMMAND // 0.5pt E/W @ 11/1 (Bet365) BOG

No dice yesterday at Musselburgh. The one who eventually won looked a likely sort but was too short for me. That’s life/racing.

Onto Bath today where there’s four low quality races that I’ve taken a look at.

3.45 Bath

At the time of writing Twilight Madness heads the market but is just 1/15 on the flat and mighty short at 2/1. Call Time and Hidden Verse make appeal too, but they and the rest of the field making their seasonal reapperances could – looking at their records fresh – very well need the run. One who shouldn’t be inconvinienced by his time off the track is DANDY DINMONT who has been freshened up and has had success from similar breaks in the past. Won on his only previous run in class 6 and is 1lb lower than that today.

DANDY DINMONT // 0.75pt Win @ 9/2 (Bet365) BOG

4.55 Bath

Despite Risen Again been the perfectly named horse for an Easter Sunday, I’m going to take a chance on a 14 race maiden in the shape of THE HARE RAIL, instead (also not a bad Easter themed name!). He is 0/14 which is obviously a big concern, but has been running pretty well of late including a fast finishing 5th LTO. Unsurpisingly, is now on a career low mark and that could just eek out the extra length or so of improvement needed.

THE HARE RAIL // 0.5pt E/W @ 15/2 4 places (Bet365) BOG

5.25 Bath

Volendam heads the market in the first division of this race, and for those who are interested, that’s who Leeds United signed Robert Molenaar (The Terminator) from in 1997. Anyway, I shall be opposing the favroute with VILLALOBOS who has en equally patchy record and is 11/0/3p at the track but think he could be a real pace angle as I’m really struggling to see anyone who will go with him. Might just be good enough to hold on for a place, or go one better and become an Easter miracle for a trainer jockey combo who do well when combining (26/6/11p last year).

VILLALOBOS // 0.5pt E/W @ 11/1 4 places (Coral) BOG

5.55 Bath

No such pace angle in the second division of the last and this is a really bad race. Despite trying to find a bet, I’ve left this alone. I’m not sure any of them can win it.

NO BET

It was a decent, if unspectacular start to the blog on Lincoln day. I put up three selections and they all ran into a place without ever really looking like winning. But it could have been worse and I will take it.

As is always the case with the flat season, after the initial excitement of Lincoln weekend, not much happens for a few weeks. A Catterick card here, a few Bath races there and a day of action up at Musselburgh.

The last race on the card is the one I will be looking at and as it’s easter and I’ve got a bit of spare time, I have noted down my thoughts on each runner.

4.45 Musselburgh

Before starting, it’s worth noting that over the 5 furlongs at Musselburgh there’s a slight advantage to those drawn high and it pays if you can find the ones who lead or are up with the pace, too.

1. ZIGGY'S TRITON (87) – Has been kept busy all winter, running 12 times since last seen on the turf. Won 2 of those off 74 and 84 before running off his revised mark in better races without getting too involved. Drops back into a Class 4 today where his record across both codes is 2153112, the most recent of those in January off 89 on the AW at Southwell.

2. WHEELS OF FIRE (80) – Blew away the cobwebs on seasonal reappearance at Newcastle last week and will have definitely needed that run. 13/1/4p on the turf and effectively 6lbs higher than his LWM. Has been well backed though so not without a chance, especially when takign into account trainer and jockey form (12/3/7p last 14 days), but too short for me.

3. CURIOUS ROVER (80) – Raced in class 2 events after winning over C&D in August off 79. Was going to say he probably needs the run but this time last year (to the day!) finished a 1L 2nd over C&D after a near identical break so could have been primed for this one again with Jason Hart back on board for only third time since that silver medal a year ago.

4. AL HUSSAR (78) – Ground no issue as won on Good to Firm and Heavy and finished last season in decent enough form but may well need the run here having finished well down the field on his debut and his reapperance as a 3yo last year.

5. THE BELL CONDUCTOR (77) – Likes to lead and may well have own way at the front but has failed to regain his form since winning at Chester at the back end of August. His mark has subsequently dropped 12lbs since that win so is dangerously handicapped if the first time cheekpieces have an effect.

6. ZARZYNI (76) – Won this race last off 78 so with the jockey’s claim is 5lb better off this time around. Goes well here (9/3/5p over C/D) and does some good work in April (6/2/4p).

7. THECOFFEEPODDOTCO (72) – A terrible name for a horse that directs you to a rubbish website (I’ve checked!), but Richard Hannon doesn’t send many up to Musselburgh, having saddled just 13 horses before today for a very decent record of 13/4/7p +22LSP and also runs WHEEL OF FIRE in this race. Looks to be up against it though to my eyes on her first start in a flat handicap.

8. ARNHEM (72) – Jim Goldie has FIVE in this race, all around the bottom of the handicap and this is the highest rated. Looks hard to win with having won just 3 from 56 starts, and only 1/35 has been on turf. All wins and best form in the summer, easy enough to pass over for me.

9. CLASSY AL (71) – Another for Goldie. Well beaten on his last two starts and all wins at Ayr or Hamilton – just 7/0/1p here. Hard to see him improving that record off a break especially when he fluffs the start so often.

10. MONTEZUMA (71) – Another of Goldie’s! Finished in front of CLASSY AL on his last run last year. 0/8 but been running well in handicaps and currently heads the market. Only his 2nd start at 5f so would be completely unexposed at the trip but current price of 11/4 looks unbelievably short to me.

11. POP STAR (70) – You can ignore his winter AW form where he is 9/0/0p but is still likely to find this too hot being 18/0/2p at the grade.

12. WOOHOO (68) – What’s that? Another Goldie horse?! Yes it is. But easy enough to pass over this one after a break of 227 days as has a poor record fresh.

13. WATER OF LEITH (68) – The final Goldie runner in the field and bottom weight making his 100th start today. 0/7 at the track and 16/0/2p at class 4 or higher means he looks totally up against it today.

You could make a case for plenty of these. The profile and money for Montezuma looks dangerous but for all his potential in this, he’s too short for me. So I’m going to take an each way chance on ZIGGYS TRITON who’s form at this grade (2153112) really appeals in this. I’m also going to have a small dart at THE BELL CONDUCTOR at 40/1. Obvioulsy he could be way out of the back come the end of the race, but he could also be the only one making the pace. The first time cheekpieces at 9 (which doesn’t happen very often!) is semi interesting and could spark some sort of improvement, so worth a few quid for interest.

ZIGGYS TRITON // 0.5pt E/W @ 9/1 // Bet365 4 places (BOG) THE BELL CONDUCTOR // 0.25pt E/W @ 40/1 // William Hill 4 places (BOG)

Really enjoyed the start of the flat season yesterday. I always like this time of year when things get going again on Town Moor. The clocks going forward, the lighter evenings, longer days – it all seems to lift people a touch, whether they notice it or not.

Despite that, I didn’t have a bet.

Partly because nothing really appealed, but also because I’m trying to be a bit more focused this flat season. The plan is to narrow things down a bit and spend more time on a specific type of race.

I’m going to concentrate on 4yo+ handicaps over 5f to 1m in class 4, 5 and 6 company. I’ll still be having bets elsewhere when something stands out, but this is where most of the attention will be. Whether it leads to any kind of miniscule edge remains to be seen, but god loves a trier and all that.

So onto Sunday, where there are four races that fit the bill and are worth getting stuck into …

1.47 Doncaster

The opening race on the card and a competitive affair but with six places on offer at several bookies I’m going to chance the Tony Coyle trained EH UP ITS JAZZ. His run LTO can be ignored, it was on the AW (where he is 0/5) and was hopefully a bit of a pipe opener for this. On a workable mark of 67 (has placed off the same and won off 64) and is 221122 in class 5 company on the turf.

EH UP ITS JAZZ // 0.5pts E/W @ 10/1 (6 places) Paddy Power (BOG)

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3.30 Doncaster

I couldn’t unpick the first division of this race, so have left that alone. The second however looks a bit more of a betting medium and I’m going to chance Jamie Osborne’s EPICTETUS in it. He’s 0/8 on the AW so I’m discounting all his winter runs, and doing that takes us back to his turf from where he was contesting valuable class 2 handicaps. Admitedly – bar one placed effort at Goodwood – he didn’t really ever land a blow but these were much better races. Should strip fitter than many of his rivals here today and the drop back to 7f should pose no problems. Looks to have a very decent chance.

EPICTETUS // 0.5pts E/W @ 7/1 (4 places) Coral (BOG)

5.50 Doncaster

Charlie Mason looks to have a really good chance but at 4/1 looks really short to me. So a chance is taken on JUAN LE PINS at slightly more generous who came back to form a couple of weeks ago and won LTO at Newcastle. The return to turf shouldn’t inconvience him and is today actually off a mark 5lbs lower than his best runs last summer, in an easier race, so you’d think he’d be competitive. Just hope the ground doens’t get any softer.

JUAN LE PINS // 0.5pts E/W @ 7/1 (4 places) William Hill (BOG)